The instant invention relates in general to methods to improve Best Management Practices (sometimes referred to as BMPs) for land application of certain nutrients, especially manures, and in particular liquid manures, and most particularly, liquid manures generated from AFO/CAFO's. The instant method is sometimes referred to as a Nutrient Application Forecasting System.
The “real time” forecasting (referred to as “real time” to contrast with annual or semi annual reporting systems) utilizes estimates, predictions and approximations, as convenient and/or necessary, and typically incorporates historic data and updated data when possible. Although the forecasts are not exact, they can be expected to increase in accuracy as a period progresses, when more actual data are known, parameters are updated and the remainder of the period of forecast decreases.
In a preferred embodiment the instant invention provides running real time forecasts to AFO/CAFO operators of the capacity of various fields to further absorb certain nutrients based on an agronomic standard. The forecasts relate to the application of liquid and solid manures (manures) from one or more manure sources, such as dairy barn lagoons or lagoons at swine production facilities, which forecasting will assist the facility to remain in “regulatory compliance.” The forecasts are related to one or more targeted or regulated substances, such as nitrogen or phosphorous.
The inventive system was developed to address significant problems in the operation of AFO/CAFO fields in the application of their manures. The system could, however, have application in analogous areas. Freshwater management forecasting and crop optimization practices are useful added features. Prediction algorithms can take into account a great number of factors, as appropriate to the circumstances, including weather and environmental events, as data is available. The program can be applied to golf courses that apply municipal waste water and/or sewage sludge. Automated controls could be added such that the program controlled an automated irrigation and valving control system and/or the program could obtain data from automatic data loggers.
A preferred embodiment of the instant Nutrient Applications Forecasting System (NAFS) preferably provides a running indicia of the status of a plurality of fields to further absorb at least one targeted substance, as a function of certain “nutrients” applied to the fields (e.g. liquid manure, solids, chemical fertilizers, etc,) and “taken up” from the fields via crops, vis-à-vis an agronomic standard (e.g. crop uptake of substance greater than or equal to application of substance.) The system preferably also adds a running real time forecast of freshwater usage vs. freshwater limitations (e.g. freshwater capacity and/or water rights.) Exceeding freshwater application limits in terms of water rights can result in regulatory non-compliance. Use of freshwater can be and frequently is closely related to use of lagoon water. A further natural use of a running real time forecast system lies in a complementary area of forecasting crop optimization parameters.
Preferred embodiments would further update an estimated targeted substance content of manure sources with new measured values at least once per crop season, preferably twice or four times per accounting period, or more, and as well would update the crop uptake estimate in regard to the targeted substance at least once during an agronomic period, (which is typically a calendar year.) At the end of a first crop season of the period, crop yield data permits making more accurate estimates of the actual crop uptake of targeted substance(s) for the full period.
Running real time forecasts are best provided to field operators at least monthly, preferably every 15 days or after every nutrient application, in order to provide timely guides for subsequent nutrient application decisions and for management of manure sources and fresh water resources.
Primary substances targeted today by regulators are nitrogen substances and/or phosphorous substances. Many states regulate the soil/water content of either nitrogen substances or phosphorous substances. The regulated substance chosen may vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction as well as from time to time. The instant system could accommodate a plurality of regulated or targeted substances, if necessary.
A liquid manure source could be any source of liquid manure. In regard to AFO/CAFO's it is typically lagoon water that has been washed and drained from a barn or swine facility, sometimes called “greenwater.” Municipal waste water and municipal sewage sludge could also be a liquid manure source. In an example herein, the liquid manure sources refer to the lagoon waters of an AFO/CAFO.
The invention has particular relevance to regulated AFO/CAFOs, where falling out of regulatory compliance can shut down operations. AFO/CAFOs generate manures predominantly in the form of lagoon waters, although also in the form of manure solids and composts. Disposing of their liquid manures in a cost effective manner is a serious issue for the AFO/CAFO's, environmentally and financially. There are a significantly greater variety of cost effective means to dispose of solid manures and composts than of liquid manures.
A cost effective and approved method for disposing of liquid manures by an AFO/CAFO is to apply them to fields, usually owned, leased, managed and/or controlled by the AFO/CAFO. Typically the fields grow crops, such as grass or feed, that are in turn utilized in the AFO/CAFO operation. A typical regulatory agronomic standard mandates that all targeted substances land-applied to a field over a period of time by manures and other nutrient sources be “taken up” by the crops, thus preventing soil pollution. The agronomic goal for each AFO/CAFO field is for at least the regulated substance “uptake” of the crop from the applied nutrients sources be roughly equivalent to, if not less than, the regulated substance supplied to the field by all of the nutrients applied, (as in the form of manure solids, liquid manures and any other chemical fertilizers.)
An AFO/CAFO, by regulatory permit and plan, is designed to manage sufficient fields such that the regulated substance generation, application and subsequent crop absorption is predicted to be at least balanced. In many jurisdictions the AFO/CAFO is required to have a permit for nutrient application via greenwater based on a proposed plan that indicates that the agronomic balance is met. In addition, periodic testing measures the targeted substance content of each manure source, as a check on the permitted plan. The total liquid discharge from the barns to the lagoons (or from the lagoon(s) to the fields) is limited by permit and tracked by metering. As an after-the-fact check on the permitted plan, periodic testing (annual, bi-annual) is performed on the soil, ground water and surface water itself, notwithstanding the permit and plan, to insure that the fields have remained within the regulatory limits with respect to targeted substances. Exceeding the regulatory limits, as determined by the tests, can result in losing the permit and/or incurring abatement or administrative orders. All are costly. It is important to avoid creating the situation that results in tests showing lack of compliance.
An AFO/CAFO also supplies freshwater (well and/or surface) to its fields for growing the crops and may be subject to freshwater rights limitations and freshwater capacity limitations. Running status forecasts of freshwater use vis-à-vis freshwater limitations are also preferably provided by the instant invention. Use of freshwater is related to the use of greenwater.
In the course of operation, the instant forecasting system is in position to also supply crop optimization parameters, which can further enhance general cost effectiveness and be environmentally beneficial.
The instant invention, in preferred embodiments, relates to methods to provide an at least monthly real time updated running forecast of indicia of limits per field for the application of manure from each manure source for the remainder of an agronomic period. The forecasts are affected by past application of nutrients and estimated or measured nutrient content of manure sources. Alternately or in addition the invention provides a running real time updated forecast of indicia of the current estimated status of targeted substance per field, vis-à-vis an agronomic targeted substance limit. Preferably crop uptake and manure composition is updated, at least once after the beginning of an agronomic period, which is usually a calendar year. Periodic supply of incremental nutrient additions data per field, plus updating changes in the crop status and/or manure content, help guide the running forecasts to become even more accurate as the agronomic period progresses. Subsequent incremental additions of nutrient can be effected with greater precision, reliability and confidence by the operator.